The Redeem Team ripped through the Olympics in 2008 thoroughly dominating the international competition. On top of that the US won the 2010 FIBA world championship with their “B” team, proving that even our second rate players could dominate other countries. Given the recent triumphs of American Basketball in the international arena, it is reasonable to conclude that the US will continue this trend of dominating in the summer 2012 Olympics. However, due to key injuries to the US’s best frontcourt players, the US should not take this summer’s greatest international competition, Spain, lightly.
Fans will remember the lockout-shortened 2011-2012 season for the critical injuries to star players. The two most significant injuries occurred at or near the end of the season: Dwight Howard sustained a herniated disc injury which was significant enough to require surgery, while Derrick Rose tore his ACL in his first playoff game of the postseason. While both players were locks for the Olympic roster, the injury to Dwight Howard is a much more significant blow to the US than Derrick Rose. The league has been blessed with Hall of Fame worthy point guards over the last decade, most notably Chris Paul and Deron Williams. The Olympic roster is packed with incredibly talented ball handlers, and Rose’s injury brings space to what will still be a jam-packed backcourt. Conversely the frontcourt of the US has been incredibly thin compared to the past gold medal teams. Many of the more skilled American big men sustained injuries earlier in the season and are no longer potential substitutes for Dwight Howard in the roster. With the best center in the game being removed from an already thin frontcourt, the US will struggle with rebounding and protecting the paint against international teams with size.
Many have challenged the notion that Dwight is still the best center in the game this season due to Dwight’s diminished image from his impending free agency antics this season.. Either these people have not objectively analyzed basketball, or are Lakers fans (somewhat redundant, I know). Over the last few years Dwight has been the best center in the game because of a lack of centers in the league that can, as ESPN analyst Jalen Rose says- “walk and chew gum.” We also must not forget Howard’s once-in-a-generation physical talent. While Dwight has dominated the center position for the last few years, a few other centers have recently made drastic improvements to claim themselves as the best in the game at the center position*. The most touted center in the NBA other than Dwight is Andrew Bynum, who played the most games and minutes this season than ever before in his career. Bynum’s consistency this season really made a difference, considering that Bynum has shown his offensive acumen only sporadically over the last few years because of injury-shortened seasons. On the other hand, some proclaim Marc Gasol the greatest center in the league due to his consistency and effectiveness on both sides of the court.
I use two tests to compare dominant players at similar positions in Basketball. The first test is analysis of statistical production using basic stats such as points, rebounds, blocks and more advanced statistics such as EWA (earned wins average) and PER. I call the second the eyeball test, which is based on the visual impact players show throughout the course of a game **. When comparing Dwight with the next greatest centers Bynum and Gasol, he clearly wins the eyeball test. His incredible athleticism and defensive dominance allows even the untrained eye to ascertain that he’s the best big man on the floor. Advanced statistics also give the edge to Dwight in almost every metric:
2011-2012
|
MPG
|
PPG
|
RPG
|
BPG
|
FG%
|
PER
|
WS/48
|
Dwight Howard
|
38.3
|
20.6
|
14.5
|
2.15
|
57.3
|
24.29
|
0.179
|
Marc Gasol
|
36.5
|
14.6
|
8.9
|
1.86
|
48.2
|
18.4
|
0.166
|
Andrew Bynum
|
35.2
|
18.7
|
11.8
|
1.93
|
55.8
|
22.9
|
0.183
|
While the U.S. has a dearth of supremely talented wing and guard players, their depth at the forward and center positions has become scant at best with the conclusion of the 2012 season. Lamarcus Aldridge, Chris Kaman, and Brook Lopez join Dwight on the list of injured “bigs” that could potentially play for the U.S. Andrew Bynum, clearly the US’s next best center, will not play due to his fragile knees. Even Kevin Love, a breakout star forward in Minnesota during the last few years, will most likely not play due to a late season concussion. In the past, size was the least of our concerns with our cavalcade of legendary post threats, such as Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone, and Shaquille O’Neal, just to name a few. Combined with the complete lack of skilled size outside of the United States, the US dominated the interior in Olympic basketball. Basketball has since grown to become a more popular sport worldwide since the 80s and 90s. The best frontcourt now belongs to Spain, which is home to the Gasol brothers. Spain also recently added Serge Ibaka to their roster via international loopholes. Together the three represent two NBA All Stars in Marc and Pau Gasol as well as an All NBA Defensive Team selection in Ibaka.
Spain owns NBA-quality guard and wing depth to go along with their superior frontcourt. Their backcourt includes former and present NBA players such as Jose Calderon, Rudy Fernandez, and Sergio Rodriguez. Objectively comparing these two backcourts is analogous to comparing Calculus II to Ordinary Differential Equations: while they are both college level math courses, one clearly requires a greater level of mathematical understanding for the student to be successful. However, calculus is still a comparable form of math, and Differential Equations could not exist without calculus. While the Spanish guards are not blessed with otherworldly-talent like the U.S. guards, they have the skills that every pro player needs to be successful. In other words, Spain’s backcourt will be able to play competitively with the US backcourt and not hinder their interior advantage.
The rest of the Olympic field should not pose a significant threat to the U.S. Teams such as Greece and Argentina which have given the U.S. trouble in the past are much weaker than they’ve been in previous years, making the US and Spain the favorites to clash in the finals of the Olympics. Due to significant injuries to American big men, most notably Dwight Howard, the US should be prepared to have a more difficult time winning the 2012 Olympics vs. Spain.
