The Pro Potential of Austin Rivers

Public Ivy Hoops Article 2 Rough Draft Austin Rivers

               

The son of a former NBA star inherits many great things: natural talent and a comfortable upbringing to name a few.  They also inherit an inordinate amount of pressure to play at or exceed the level of their fathers. Austin Rivers is no exception to this rule, as he is the son of the Boston Celtic’s head coach Doc Rivers. Austin has been hailed as one of the best young talents in the game since high school, where he dominated at Winter Park high school, became a consensus top-5 college basketball prospect, and was crowned basketball royalty when he chose to attend Duke University.  After his freshman year at Duke, where he averaged a pedestrian (with respect to his high school hype) 15.5 PPG shooting 43.3% from the field and 36.5% from behind the arc, Austin has accrued many doubters of his NBA potential.  Many believe the scoring prowess he flashed in high school will not translate to the pro level due to his lack of elite athleticism and size.   I however believe Austin Rivers will indeed have a successful, borderline all star NBA career due to his unique ability to attack the basket, his NBA shooting range, and his mental toughness. 

Proponents of the notion that Austin lacks NBA athleticism believe that his lack of elite speed or vertical leaping ability will hinder his ability to attack and, more importantly, finish at the basket as he has done in high school and college.  Like all rookies Austin will indeed need to acclimate to NBA level defenders.  Austin however, has already displayed the tools necessary to successfully adapt and continue flourishing around the rim. Rivers displays the potential to develop a large array of floaters to finish over many of the giant centers in the NBA due to his soft touch and expert use of the glass around the rim. His quickness combined with his creativity handling the ball will allow him to successfully get to the basket at will against NBA guards as he did in college and provide plenty of footage for NBA Ankle Breakers annual video for years to come.  Austin’s performance against Ohio State provides contextual evidence of his driving ability translating to the next level.  Both of Ohio State’s starting guards, William Buford and Aaron Craft, are NBA-level prospects.  While Duke struggled to contain Jared Sullinger in the post, Austin Rivers had his way with both guards attempting to defend him.  By embarrassing the OSU guards with his crossover he was able to create scoring opportunities by driving to the basket unhindered.

Every successful undersized guard in the NBA has some exemplary trait that allows them to overcome size disadvantages, and Austin is no different.  Austin augments his quickness and ball handling with three point accuracy that extends to NBA range, which he has had since High School.  While a bit streaky Rivers is completely comfortable launching long range bombs.  He is especially adept at shooting off the dribble; normally this would be a problem since rookies are not given the basketball enough to make use of this skill, but Austin has been projected as the future point guard of the New Orleans Hornets which should guarantee him enough time with the ball to utilize his talent.  Although he has a tendency to swing his elbow out when shooting, his release on his jump shot is quick and he is able to rise up on a dime to unleash his jumper.  His jump shot consistently produces a high arc which, as Dirk Nowitzki and mathematics has proven, leads to a higher percentage of made jumpshots.

The trait that will affect Austin’s success in the NBA the most is his mental toughness.  River’s game winning three point shot at North Carolina exemplifies Austin’s mean streak and ability to rise with the pressure of a game.  Austin is a confident, highly competitive young man who has shown a willingness to put hours into the gym to improve his game.  Many believe Austin to be arrogant: while this may be true, I believe his work ethic gives him an acceptable reason to exude as much confidence as he does.  Every pro player in the NBA is cocky by any objective standard.  The difference between the star and the 15^th-man riding the bench is their natural talent and work ethic. Austin grew up in the NBA environment and has not only seen and learned what it takes to be successful in the league but has already proven himself mature enough to take advantage of all of his opportunities.

While Austin Rivers has been slightly overhyped due to the combination of being the son of Doc Rivers and playing for Duke University, Rivers has portrayed exceptional talents. His mental makeup, scoring acumen, and a favorable nurturing environment with the Hornets will help him become a successful NBA player.

Plans For Public Ivy Hoops

I have not had much time to compose basketball analysis due to a full time internship this summer.  As the fall semester approaches (and my summer job ends) I will attempt to produce articles more quickly than my current rate of 1 every 3 months (which I am quite proud of, by the way). My current goal is to have one quality article every month- and perhaps additional small entries giving my take on surprising news in the NBA (such as the recent Dwight Howard trade finally taking place).

Thanks!

Outlook for the Redeem Team in 2012

    The Redeem Team ripped through the Olympics in 2008 thoroughly dominating the international competition.  On top of that the US won the 2010 FIBA world championship with their “B” team, proving that even our second rate players could dominate other countries.  Given the recent triumphs of American Basketball in the international arena, it is reasonable to conclude that the US will continue this trend of dominating in the summer 2012 Olympics.  However, due to key injuries to the US’s best frontcourt players, the US should not take this summer’s greatest international competition, Spain, lightly. 

    Fans will remember the lockout-shortened 2011-2012 season for the critical injuries to star players.  The two most significant injuries occurred at or near the end of the season: Dwight Howard sustained a herniated disc injury which was significant enough to require surgery, while Derrick Rose tore his ACL in his first playoff game of the postseason.  While both players were locks for the Olympic roster, the injury to Dwight Howard is a much more significant blow to the US than Derrick Rose.  The league has been blessed with Hall of Fame worthy point guards over the last decade, most notably Chris Paul and Deron Williams.  The Olympic roster is packed with incredibly talented ball handlers, and Rose’s injury brings space to what will still be a jam-packed backcourt.  Conversely the frontcourt of the US has been incredibly thin compared to the past gold medal teams.  Many of the more skilled American big men sustained injuries earlier in the season and are no longer potential substitutes for Dwight Howard in the roster.  With the best center in the game being removed from an already thin frontcourt, the US will struggle with rebounding and protecting the paint against international teams with size.

     Many have challenged the notion that Dwight is still the best center in the game this season due to Dwight’s diminished image from his impending free agency antics this season..  Either these people have not objectively analyzed basketball, or are Lakers fans (somewhat redundant, I know).  Over the last few years Dwight has been the best center in the game because of a lack of centers in the league that can, as ESPN analyst Jalen Rose says- “walk and chew gum.”   We also must not forget Howard’s once-in-a-generation physical talent.  While Dwight has dominated the center position for the last few years, a few other centers have recently made drastic improvements to claim themselves as the best in the game at the center position*.  The most touted center in the NBA other than Dwight is Andrew Bynum, who played the most games and minutes this season than ever before in his career.  Bynum’s consistency this season really made a difference, considering that Bynum has shown his offensive acumen only sporadically over the last few years because of injury-shortened seasons.  On the other hand, some proclaim Marc Gasol the greatest center in the league due to his consistency and effectiveness on both sides of the court.  

     I use two tests to compare dominant players at similar positions in Basketball.  The first test is analysis of statistical production using basic stats such as points, rebounds, blocks and more advanced statistics such as EWA (earned wins average) and PER. I call the second the eyeball test, which is based on the visual impact players show throughout the course of a game **. When comparing Dwight with the next greatest centers Bynum and Gasol, he clearly wins the eyeball test.  His incredible athleticism and defensive dominance allows even the untrained eye to ascertain that he’s the best big man on the floor.  Advanced statistics also give the edge to Dwight in almost every metric:

2011-2012	MPG	PPG	RPG	BPG	FG%	PER	WS/48
Dwight  Howard	38.3	20.6	14.5	2.15	57.3	24.29	0.179
Marc Gasol	36.5	14.6	8.9	1.86	48.2	18.4	0.166
Andrew Bynum	35.2	18.7	11.8	1.93	55.8	22.9	0.183

Even in an uncharacteristically bad year for Dwight in 2011-2012 he still edges the competition in almost every relevant statistic. 

     While the U.S. has a dearth of supremely talented wing and guard players, their depth at the forward and center positions has become scant at best with the conclusion of the 2012 season.  Lamarcus Aldridge, Chris Kaman, and Brook Lopez join Dwight on the list of injured “bigs” that could potentially play for the U.S.  Andrew Bynum, clearly the US’s next best center, will not play due to his fragile knees.  Even Kevin Love, a breakout star forward in Minnesota during the last few years, will most likely not play due to a late season concussion.   In the past, size was the least of our concerns with our cavalcade of legendary post threats, such as Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone, and Shaquille O’Neal, just to name a few. Combined with the complete lack of skilled size outside of the United States, the US dominated the interior in Olympic basketball.  Basketball has since grown to become a more popular sport worldwide since the 80s and 90s.  The best frontcourt now belongs to Spain, which is home to the Gasol brothers.  Spain also recently added Serge Ibaka to their roster via international loopholes.  Together the three represent two NBA All Stars in Marc and Pau Gasol as well as an All NBA Defensive Team selection in Ibaka.

     Spain owns NBA-quality guard and wing depth to go along with their superior frontcourt.  Their backcourt includes former and present NBA players such as Jose Calderon, Rudy Fernandez, and Sergio Rodriguez.  Objectively comparing these two backcourts is analogous to comparing Calculus II to Ordinary Differential Equations: while they are both college level math courses, one clearly requires a greater level of mathematical understanding for the student to be successful.  However, calculus is still a comparable form of math, and Differential Equations could not exist without calculus.  While the Spanish guards are not blessed with otherworldly-talent like the U.S. guards, they have the skills that every pro player needs to be successful.  In other words, Spain’s backcourt will be able to play competitively with the US backcourt and not hinder their interior advantage.

     The rest of the Olympic field should not pose a significant threat to the U.S.   Teams such as Greece and Argentina which have given the U.S. trouble in the past are much weaker than they’ve been in previous years, making the US and Spain the favorites to clash in the finals of the Olympics.    Due to significant injuries to American big men, most notably Dwight Howard, the US should be prepared to have a more difficult time winning the 2012 Olympics vs. Spain. 

-- Edited by Will Fox

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*1. I will go into much more depth analyzing this position as well as the other four in the coming weeks so please bear with my shortened breakdown

** 2.A good example of a player that lacks stats but is clearly a great player due to the eyeball test is Manu Ginobli; whenever he is on the court it is clearly evident that he plays the game at a different speed than others- the game is slower for him, allowing him to diagnose plays with incredible ease and utilize his legendary craftiness and underrated athleticism

Introductory Post

I'm Matthew Mahoney, an undergraduate at the University of Virginia majoring in Mechanical Engineering.  I'm an avid fan of both  pro and college basketball with no allegiance to any specific team outside of the perennial dominant college basketball program that is UVA.  My only credentials are that I played varsity basketball in high school and spend hours reading, listening and watching basketball daily.

I have far too many opinions on just about EVERY topic concerning basketball, such as the cataclysmic effect of Lebron James leaving Cleveland or all of the fascinating aspects of his receding hairline, but will focus mostly on the NBA and Division I college basketball. I strive to be a source for great basketball debates and conversation based off actual BASKETBALL knowledge that has sadly been  replaced by hardcore statistics-driven articles with little actual basketball analysis. This is not saying that there aren't quality writers who use powerful statistics- my fellow wahoo John Hollinger is truly a genius when it comes to combining incredible statistics with solid knowledge of the game of basketball.  Just know that even though I have a strong background and proficiency in many forms of mathematics, I won't be utilizing new innovative statistical analysis such as P.B.R (player badass rating) to prove my arguments.

Thanks for reading and please feel free to comment on any topics posted on this blog.
MM